Adjusting Nick Punto's ZiPS Projections With Park Factors, Other Factors

As we all are presently aware, Future Hall-of-Famer Nick Punto has taken his talents to the desert. According to Punto himself, he had, "grown bored of annihilating American League pitching," and was looking for a change of scenery.  So he demanded his release from the team, and signed up with 'Zona, hoping that the National League, "Has gotten some fresh pitchers since I left."  Anyways, Punto's ZiPS projections for the 2015 season were calculated before his change of teams, and I'm here to adjust the numbers to his new park, league, and roll on the team.  First, the initial projections:

Player	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	No.1 Comp
Nick Punto	37	2B	239	22	45	8	1	2	15	2	2	0.213	0.292	0.289	Craig Counsell

ZiPS wouldn't dare comp Punto to
Jamey Carroll's punk ass.

Pretty shitty, right?  It's a good thing Punto is moving from one of the worst offensive parks to one of the best, because I was about to say, those don't look like Punto level numbers!  I mean, what kind of insulting comp is Craig Counsell????  You might as well comp him to Montreal-era Jamey Carroll! HA! Like that would ever happen.

Obviously, Future Hall-of-Famer Nick Punto will do, like, an assload better than these ZiPS projections. (Due a tangible change of league and home park, of course.)

There are multiple adjustments that need to be made to the ZiPS projections.  Number one, they assume just 239 PAs for Nicky P in 2015.  What?  We all know Punto's a versatility machine.  Give 'em six-hundo and we'll call it even.  With 600 PAs, things shape up a little bit, but we have to take into full account the effect his new park will have on his numbers.  According to Fangraphs Park Factors, Punto should expect a 7% increase in offensive output due to his new home at Chase Field.  Well screw that shit!  We all know Punto's gonna mash like a friggin' potato.  A better estimate of his uptick in offense due to Park Factors is that it will be, like, 300% better.  Punto's adjusted line:

Player

Age

PO

PA

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

No.1 Comp

Nick Punto

37

2B

600

166

339

60

8

15

113

15

15

Nick Punto

Now that's more like it!  Some interesting observations about his adjusted projections:

• ZiPS predicts 60 doubles from Punto, taking into account Chase Field's expansive outfield gaps.
• It also predicts 113 RBI, showing that Punto will benefit from hitting in the middle of the order on his new team.
• ZiPS forecasts that Punto will break the all-time single-season hits record by a margin of 77.
• ZiPS adjusted Punto's comp to the only player who he could possibly be compared to: himself.

The Bombest of Bombs With Nick Punto

As conspicuously noted on this weblog, Future Hall-of-Famer Nick Punto currently has 19 home runs during officially sanctioned Major League Baseball regular season play.  Of those nineteen, twelve are recent enough to have been catalogued by ESPN Home Run Tracker.  Of those, one was a straight friggin' bomb.

Uppa Deck Muthafucka!!!!  There's nothing more satisfying that Nicky P showing how long he can dong.
Now take into account what we're watching here.  This was calculated to have a 444 ft true distance on HR Tracker.  This is by far the farthest homer he has hit in within the the data available.  In fact, this is probably the hardest Nick Punto has hit a ball at the professional level ever.  Let that shit sink in for a second.  #whoadude.

Nick Punto Is The Most Metal

Poem by Nick Punto:

Teacher and her facist bullshit

Tryna control my mind

But u can't control me

I listen to System of a Down

And have a 10 k/d on Halo 2

Screw my parents

Tellin me to clean my room

I won't, so suc it.

Go back to your disney suburbia fairy tale.

Someday, I'm gunna leave this shitty town

And go on tour with Disturbed or some other kickass band

And then they'll all regret me.

But Ill just smile and say...

Let the Bodies Hit the Floor

Classic and Possible Creepy Punto Vids: Installment 3

Classic!
Creepy?

Classic Punto Vids: Installment 2

So classic

Classic Punto Vids: Installment 1

Classic

A Punto Gif And Limerick

There once was a Dodger so keen

His scrap could be easily seen

He dove in the dirt

And mussed up his shirt

Even though the single was clean

A Punto gif a Day Keeps the Shredder Away: Day 2

Nick Punto rejects your definition of the strike zone

A Punto gif A Day Keeps The Shredder Away: Day 1

The umpire says strike three. False.

The Art of Shredding With Nick Punto

A fantastic article from ESPN that cronicles the lore and legend of Shredder Punto. link

Some choice quotes:

“Last year, David Freese’s Game 6 jersey is in the Hall of Fame,” Punto said. “But it’s torn up in pieces.” 

“Ellis was easy because his jersey isn’t sewn,” Punto said as he pointed to the lining of the buttons on the jersey. “Adrian’s is sewn all the way up, so it’s a tough shred.” 

“They call him the Shredder for a reason, and I was warned about him,” Ellis said with smile. “Matt Guerrier played with him in Minnesota and he warned us all that the Shredder is coming, so when you get the walk-off win, tell Mitch Poole, our clubhouse guy, to order more jerseys.” 

Vintage Punto

Oakland Athletics to play for Nick Punto in 2014

Though nothing is official, it appears that it appears Future Hall-of-Famer Nick Punto has found his new team for the 2014 season.  Punto said that the Dodgers had really "contributed a lot" during the past year and a half, but that he was looking to "move in a different direction".

Though details are still being worked out, Punto has brought on a team that will deliver big.  With a talented major league roster and fertile farm system, Punto believes he has chosen the best available team to play for him.  "I always say buy low," Punto commented at his official press conference, where he shook hands with his newly acquired teammates, owner, and front office personnel, "The A's are really undervalued.  All of my research has shown that teams with awful stadiums have become the new market inefficiency."

When questioned about how he planned to deploy his new team Punto replied, "Right now, we're looking at playing the Athletics at third, short, and all three outfield spots. I will be manning second, obviously.  As for first base and catcher, I am still exploring other options."

Rumors have circulated that the Minnesota Twins could fill in at first for a second time around with Punto, and that he has expressed interest in the Yomiuri Giants as a potential stopgap behind the plate, though the team's posting fee may be a tad high for Punto's liking.

Nick Punto Fined, Benched For Showing Up Too Early, Saves The Game With Clutch Putout In 9th.

A tense moment in the dugout between Punto and Mattingly
in the dugout during yesterday's game.  An unidentified
Dodgers coach says "Awwwkward" in falsetto in background.

Future Hall-of-Famer Nick Punto was fined and benched yesterday for showing up to the Miami ballpark at 5:35 AM, which lead to his momentary arrest by the Miami PD for trespassing.  Punto was released on bail, and was fined the respective amount by Manager Don Mattingly, who subsequently benched Punto for, "Trying too goddam hard".  Inexorably, however, Punto saved the game for the Dodgers in the 9th with a clutch putout at second, where he had been stationed as a late game defensive replacement.  Offered Yasiel Puig, "He's a transcendent talent, what can I say?  This team was down and out, spinning its wheels in fourth place, and since then Punto has put the team on his back."

The Officially Official Nick Punto Fan Club -- Back By Popular Demand

After a lengthy hiatus of two, possibly even three months, the Officially Official Nick Punto Fan Club, much like the equally ill-advised returns of Jericho and Kim Possible, is back by popular demand.  “By who?”  the reader may ask.  By one man, the author answers, of whom forcibly picked the Officially Official Nick Punto Fan Club up by its proverbial collar and demanded to be paid the fuck attention to.  Danny DeVito has joined forces with Nick Punto in the club of five foot nothing tycoons of industry, and the duo has the promise of being the most compelling Hollywood/baseball couple since Canseco and Madonna, nay DiMaggio and Marylin.  Just watch.  There are no words.

Nick Punto Hits Sixteenth Career Home Run, On Pace To Hit 51 (Assuming 3,000 At Bats)

Another Blockbuster Trade Brewing?

Spring Training is buzzing over rumors that Future Hall-of-Famer Nick Punto is on the trade block.

The Yankees have been chomping at the bit to aquire the superutility infielder, as sorces report that a package of Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Tino Martinez and Happy Jack Chesboro has been kicked around between the two clubs, though nothing has gone final. Other potential suitors include the Florida Marlins, who have offered an unprecedented 2.5 million dollar contract extension with a no-trade clause if Punto was traded there.

For a more accurate report on Puntorumors, check out MLB Trade Rumors

Celebrate Nick Punto Day on February 12th!

Ah yes, 'tis the season.  The Super Bowl is is the rear view mirror, Keith Law has released his top 100 prospects and ESPN has just launched its fantasy baseball game; all signs that Nick Punto Day is right around the corner! As the twelth most famous of our national holidays, here’s an overview of the hallowed traditions of February 12^th.

Conceived by Twins blogger Andrew Kneeland in 2010, Nick Punto Day was created as a sort of international debate forum, a day for blogger and commenters alike to argue the merits and shortcomings of Little Nicky P. 

Some fine examples of Nick Punto Day can be found here.

The traditional head-first slide into first base has taken its hold as the most widely practiced NPD custom.  In baseball fields throughout the country (regardless of climate) loyal Puntoites can be seen sliding headfirst into first base at a time between 2:10 and 2:59, depending on Punto’s current lifetime batting average. 

So show your Puntmas Spirit on February 12th!  Dress up in your finest Punto gear and spread some holiday cheer!

For Those Already Missing The Baseall Season...

Nick Punto Confused With Infield Fly Fiasco, "For Me, That Ball's a Routine Triple Play"

Future Hall-of-Famer and Dodgers superutility man Nick Punto called a press conference today to express his confusion over the Cardinals-Braves infield-fly fiasco.  He spent most of the conference wondering aloud what he was missing.

"I don't get what the hulabaloo is all about," Punto quipped, "If I'm playing shortstop, that ball's an unnassisted triple play every time."

Hustle: The Puntomeme